Leeds AI Experiment
Average Rating: 8/10 Hits: 810 Submitted: Aug 16, 2008
Football is full of 'What Ifs?' For instance:
What if the referee had spotted the 'Hand of God' in 1986?.
What if Gazza had been a little faster or taller in the Semi-Final of Euro '96?
What if Cantona had never left Leeds for Man Utd?
What if Abramovich had never taken over at Chelsea?
So, we decided, with a little help from a friend, to pose some of our own 'What Ifs?' and run experiments within FM to see what it thinks the result may have been. The first experiment sees us look at the position Leeds United find themselves in at the start of the 2007/08 season, namely bottom of League 1 and with a 15 point penalty imposed. What we propose to do is examine how FM feels the club would have fared had Wise remained in charge all season and then see how Leeds may have performed with some of the Premiership's top managerial talent (and Rafa Benitez) at the helm. And, just for fun, we'll be giving Wise the chance to run their clubs too.
First up is our 'control' subject, the one and only Dennis Frank Wise.
Transfer Activity.
Wise chose to start the season with the default squad, a squad which in all honesty, should have been more than equal to most sides in the third tier of English football. Then, shortly before the August window closed, he signed two defenders from Championship teams. Whether they were panic buys or not they were to play key roles in the Leeds' defence throughout the season, racking up 100 games between them. Wise's only other incoming player was another deadline day deal (this time the March loan window) to bring in an experienced Premiership midfielder. Wise sold no players but did allow a number of youth prospects to gain experience at non-league level.
Player transfers
Wise was a little more active in terms of staff recruitment however, bringing in no less than seven new faces, the most famous of these being former England international and Tango advertiser, Ray 'Squareball' Wilkins.
The Season.
There's little doubt that Leeds started the season with a strong squad, one probably good enough to battle for a play-off spot despite their massive penalty (as they did in real life) and certainly good enough to lodge safely in mid-table. It's something of a surprise then to see that Wise took just a single point from his first five games in League 1. Indeed, when they did finally record a victory (3-1 v Bournemouth at Elland Road) it proved to be something of a false dawn as the next four games only produced a single point with some nine goals conceded. Thus going into the second week of October Leeds remained rooted to the bottom of the table with ten points of their penalty still outstanding. At that point Leeds found their feet somewhat, suffering just two further league defeats throughout the rest of October, November and December, a run which saw them clamber from the foot of the table for the first time and see in the New Year in a less than respectable 23rd.
If the club's league form made for painful viewing from a fans' perspective, at least the cups were providing some light relief. A disappointing First Round exit from the League Cup aside (3-0 v Chesterfield at Saltergate), Leeds progressed well reaching the Johnstone's Paint Trophy Northern Final where they beat Port Vale on penalties and falling from the FA Cup in a close game against Premiership side Wigan. The victory against Port Vale meant that Wise's men would face Southend in the National Final of the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, a match which Southend began as clear favourites having already completed the league double over Leeds. A dour match ended 0-0 and Leeds claimed the trophy on penalties.
Despite the decent cup runs league form continued to be inconsistent at best in the second half of the season. Good results like those against Yeovil (5-0 Away) and Oldham (3-0 Home) were sandwiched between poor results against Gillingham (1-2 Home), Walsall (2-2 Away) and Huddersfield (2-3 Home). With nine games to go Wise had Leeds in their highest position of the season, a disappointing 22nd. Survival was by no means out of the question but it would require an upturn in form that appeared more and more to be beyond Wise. Indeed, as the club dropped back to 23rd position after a 4-1 defeat at Millwall, Wise was sacked by Ken Bates with just five games of the season remaining. His replacement Mick McCarthy, himself sacked by Wolves in December, dragged the club from the relegation zone on the final day of the season, saving them from relegation on goal difference.
Final league table
The Players.
Perhaps it's not too surprising that Leeds were only able to narrowly avoid relegation when we take a closer look at their squad performances on an individual level. Of their 17-man permanent squad only one player managed an average rating above 7.00 (the mark considered by many to indicate a consistent level of good performance) and only a further eight crept above 6.75. In terms of goalscoring they fared little better. Yes, their top scorer weighed in with a fairly impressive 30 goals in all competitions but only one other player managed to break into double figures. Looking at it in a different way, the Leeds' strikeforce managed just 54 goals from 93 starts and 67 substitute appearances. Their midfield contributed a less than impressive 16 goals in 182 (23) appearances. All of this from a squad which should have been capable of so much more.
Squad details
All in all, a very disappointing season for Wise and Leeds then. The JPT win was the only real highlight but it can have done little to remove the feeling of embarrassment that the club's lowly league position caused. The fact that the only point of the season that the club escaped the bottom-four was at the end of the final match of the season tells its own story and Wise can have few, if any, reasons to argue that he was dismissed unfairly.
Our other managerial subjects fared as follows:
Sir Alex Ferguson - Premiership Champions (on goal difference), Champions League Quarter-finalists, FA Cup Semi-finalists, League Cup Winners.
Arsene Wenger - Premiership Runners-up (on goal difference), Champions League 1st Knockout Round, FA Cup 4th Round, League Cup 4th Round.
Avram Grant - 3rd place in Premiership, Champions League Quarter-finalists, FA Cup Semi-finalists, League Cup 3rd Round.
Rafa Benitez - 4th place in Premiership, Champions League 1st Knockout Round, FA Cup Winners, League Cup 4th Round.
Surprisingly none of them achieved the kind of Champions League domination that English clubs enjoyed in real life, indeed Arsenal and Liverpool both fell to relatively weak opponents. Both of the major English cup competitions were won by one of the big four.
Will Wise be able to beat these achievements when he takes control of a top side? Will a world class manager perform better in the depths of League 1? Could they actually do worse than Wise? Find out in Part 2 as Arsene and Dennis trade places...
Transfer Activity.
Wise chose to start the season with the default squad, a squad which in all honesty, should have been more than equal to most sides in the third tier of English football. Then, shortly before the August window closed, he signed two defenders from Championship teams. Whether they were panic buys or not they were to play key roles in the Leeds' defence throughout the season, racking up 100 games between them. Wise's only other incoming player was another deadline day deal (this time the March loan window) to bring in an experienced Premiership midfielder. Wise sold no players but did allow a number of youth prospects to gain experience at non-league level.
Player transfers
Wise was a little more active in terms of staff recruitment however, bringing in no less than seven new faces, the most famous of these being former England international and Tango advertiser, Ray 'Squareball' Wilkins.
The Season.
There's little doubt that Leeds started the season with a strong squad, one probably good enough to battle for a play-off spot despite their massive penalty (as they did in real life) and certainly good enough to lodge safely in mid-table. It's something of a surprise then to see that Wise took just a single point from his first five games in League 1. Indeed, when they did finally record a victory (3-1 v Bournemouth at Elland Road) it proved to be something of a false dawn as the next four games only produced a single point with some nine goals conceded. Thus going into the second week of October Leeds remained rooted to the bottom of the table with ten points of their penalty still outstanding. At that point Leeds found their feet somewhat, suffering just two further league defeats throughout the rest of October, November and December, a run which saw them clamber from the foot of the table for the first time and see in the New Year in a less than respectable 23rd.
If the club's league form made for painful viewing from a fans' perspective, at least the cups were providing some light relief. A disappointing First Round exit from the League Cup aside (3-0 v Chesterfield at Saltergate), Leeds progressed well reaching the Johnstone's Paint Trophy Northern Final where they beat Port Vale on penalties and falling from the FA Cup in a close game against Premiership side Wigan. The victory against Port Vale meant that Wise's men would face Southend in the National Final of the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, a match which Southend began as clear favourites having already completed the league double over Leeds. A dour match ended 0-0 and Leeds claimed the trophy on penalties.
Despite the decent cup runs league form continued to be inconsistent at best in the second half of the season. Good results like those against Yeovil (5-0 Away) and Oldham (3-0 Home) were sandwiched between poor results against Gillingham (1-2 Home), Walsall (2-2 Away) and Huddersfield (2-3 Home). With nine games to go Wise had Leeds in their highest position of the season, a disappointing 22nd. Survival was by no means out of the question but it would require an upturn in form that appeared more and more to be beyond Wise. Indeed, as the club dropped back to 23rd position after a 4-1 defeat at Millwall, Wise was sacked by Ken Bates with just five games of the season remaining. His replacement Mick McCarthy, himself sacked by Wolves in December, dragged the club from the relegation zone on the final day of the season, saving them from relegation on goal difference.
Final league table
The Players.
Perhaps it's not too surprising that Leeds were only able to narrowly avoid relegation when we take a closer look at their squad performances on an individual level. Of their 17-man permanent squad only one player managed an average rating above 7.00 (the mark considered by many to indicate a consistent level of good performance) and only a further eight crept above 6.75. In terms of goalscoring they fared little better. Yes, their top scorer weighed in with a fairly impressive 30 goals in all competitions but only one other player managed to break into double figures. Looking at it in a different way, the Leeds' strikeforce managed just 54 goals from 93 starts and 67 substitute appearances. Their midfield contributed a less than impressive 16 goals in 182 (23) appearances. All of this from a squad which should have been capable of so much more.
Squad details
All in all, a very disappointing season for Wise and Leeds then. The JPT win was the only real highlight but it can have done little to remove the feeling of embarrassment that the club's lowly league position caused. The fact that the only point of the season that the club escaped the bottom-four was at the end of the final match of the season tells its own story and Wise can have few, if any, reasons to argue that he was dismissed unfairly.
Our other managerial subjects fared as follows:
Sir Alex Ferguson - Premiership Champions (on goal difference), Champions League Quarter-finalists, FA Cup Semi-finalists, League Cup Winners.
Arsene Wenger - Premiership Runners-up (on goal difference), Champions League 1st Knockout Round, FA Cup 4th Round, League Cup 4th Round.
Avram Grant - 3rd place in Premiership, Champions League Quarter-finalists, FA Cup Semi-finalists, League Cup 3rd Round.
Rafa Benitez - 4th place in Premiership, Champions League 1st Knockout Round, FA Cup Winners, League Cup 4th Round.
Surprisingly none of them achieved the kind of Champions League domination that English clubs enjoyed in real life, indeed Arsenal and Liverpool both fell to relatively weak opponents. Both of the major English cup competitions were won by one of the big four.
Will Wise be able to beat these achievements when he takes control of a top side? Will a world class manager perform better in the depths of League 1? Could they actually do worse than Wise? Find out in Part 2 as Arsene and Dennis trade places...
